Notes from Unemployment Video

[VisionVictory]

I often round numbers down or up so the numbers are not exact. For example 153,434,111 would = 153.4 million in a video.

These are my rough draft notes

U-1 to U-6 Data
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

Birth Death Model
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

Unemployment
http://www.courant.com/business/sns-ap- ... 9438.story




U-3 number

Part time for economic reasons
9.2 Million Fully Employed
Unemployed but have given up looking for work- Doesn’t exist
Unemployed but haven’t looked for a job in the past 4 weeks, bye bye

The Continuing claims Green Shoot

Emergency Unemployment Compensation

Unemployment Insurance Benefits up 24% in a month From Nov - December

The Government spent 11.8 Billion in November and a record 14.7 Billion for December
How large is this number? 14 Billion was how much the government paid in Federal Salaries for December 2009.


Why are initial claims falling? Economists are saying this is a green shoot. Economist should note that when people exhaust their continuing claims (52%) they are no longer counted in that group. Duh
4 in 10 of the unemployed have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks.
Emergency Unemployment Compensation went from 3,594,253(3.6M) on 11/7/09 to 5,143,410 (5.1M) 12/19/09 Up 43% in just over a month
Emergency Claims are so large now they have surpassed continuing claims.
Instead of adding them together, the government separates the two groups, giving them a green shoot. If they told the truth and combined the numbers, continuing claims would more than double.
The Green Shoot = 7 M continuing claims in June and 4.8 M for December. The problem is, Emergency claims in June were around 2.5 M, today they are at 5.1M.
So lets wrap this up, we have had a decline of continuing claims of 2.2 M and an increase in emergency claims of 2.6 M.

Initial Claims

Seasonal Adjustments are going down at the same time actual initial claims have been on the rise since Sept 2009
Actual Claims 10-OCT 500,000/Seasonal right in line
Actual Claims 5-DEC 650,000/Seasonal 460,000 almost a 200,000 difference

Initial Claims for 2006 were around 150,000
Seasonal Adjustments wiped out 33% of initial claims this week.


Birth Death Model = job guesstimation model

Throughout the most severe downturn since the Great Depression this BLS has been busy creating phantom jobs.
However when America was being pressured for more stimulus money the subtracted 356,000 jobs.
Once the bill was passed, they tried to make up for it by creating 879,000 jobs in 5 months.


Civilian Work Force

Shows evidence of people simply giving up hope
661,000 fewer people were counted in the labor force because they simply gave up.
Participation rate fell to a new 2009 low of 64.6%

Since May the labor force has shrunk by 1.9 million from people giving up.
According to the census we should of grown by 875,000 people

The participation rate has fallen to 64% = Eligible, working age individuals who have sought work in the past 4 weeks.
If you haven’t looked for a job in the past 4 weeks you are no longer considered unemployed.

First time EVER fewer than 2/3rds of adult men are working

[EdwardTeach]

Thank's again for all your hard work, You are the first one I come to for honest facts.
Always sopt on and accurate. Bravo.


Good Luck.

[sstoy]

This was your best video yet! Wonderful! Thanks.

[Gunslinger]

Danny thanks for digging out the true stats on the unemployed...also of note:
The median duration for unemployment is 21 weeks
The % of those unemployed 27 weeks and over is 40 %
The employment to population rato is now 58.2

[sstoy]

bump